Breaking: Nigeria’s Inflation Update — September 2025

By 9jafinds Staff ✍🏽 | Sept 18, 2025

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline inflation in August 2025 fell to 20.12% year-on-year, down from 21.88% in July.
Food inflation, a major driver of consumer price rises, also eased, registering 21.87% YoY, compared to higher figures in previous months.
On a monthly basis, August saw a 0.74% increase in all-items inflation (headline), much lower than July’s 1.99%.

Several factors appear behind the slowing inflation:

Methodological changes by NBS, including re-weighting and updating the base year of Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculations, which tend to affect inflation readings. Reuters+1
Easier pressure on food prices, especially staples like local and imported rice, maize, and other grains. Some import costs have moderated. allAfrica.com+1
Relative stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market, resulting in fewer sudden cost hikes for imported goods. allAfrica.com+1
Improved harvest and supply chain logistics in some agricultural zones, though rural inflation remains higher and more volatile. allAfrica.com+1

IMPI (Independent Media & Policy Initiative) projects inflation might drop to ~17% by December 2025, if current trends (monetary policy discipline, agricultural supply improvement, FX-stability) continue. The Guardian Nigeria
However, risks remain: supply chain disruptions (especially in rural or conflict-affected areas), volatility in global commodity prices (rice, fuel, fertilizer), and fiscal pressures on the government could reverse gains.

If you’re in the diaspora or sending money home, this inflation trend matters a lot:

Cost of Staples: Even with inflation easing, staples like rice, tomatoes, and poultry are still expensive. Budget more than before when buying or sending food items.
Remittances: The value of remittances may not stretch as far domestically due to high core inflation and exchange rate gaps.
Travel & Visits Home: When you visit, expect that food, accommodation, and transport costs may still be high — though improving. Knowing the inflation trend helps with budgeting.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has held key interest rates unchanged (for example, the Monetary Policy Rate) while monitoring further disinflation before easing policy. Reuters+1
Some suspension of levies and import duties have been implemented or reviewed to reduce the inflation burden on consumers.

Urban inflation eased more than rural in August. Urban year-on-year inflation was ~19.75%, down significantly from ~34-35% a year earlier. Rural inflation was somewhat higher, indicating transport, supply, and logistics still weigh more outside cities. allAfrica.com+1
Core inflation (excluding volatile food & energy items) remains elevated but is trending downward, offering hope for future stability. allAfrica.com

What is headline vs. food vs. core inflation?
Headline covers all items in CPI. Food inflation tracks how fast food costs are rising. Core inflation removes volatile items (food, energy) to give a cleaner signal of underlying price trends.
Why base year change matters:
Updating the base year and weights changes how inflation is calculated — some price changes that hit harder in older baskets might be diluted in new ones, leading to lower numbers even if many prices are still rising.
Can CBN cut rates soon?
Possibly, if inflation continues to ease and FX markets stay stable. But cuts will be cautious due to global headwinds and federal fiscal pressures.

Budget proactively: Expect slightly lower inflationary pressure but still plan for high food, transport, and utility costs.
Lock in prices now: Buy nonperishable staples and cooking essentials from trusted online Naija-shops so you avoid future price spikes.
Support local businesses when possible — imports contribute to inflation; boosting local agriculture & goods helps long-term stability.
Monitor FX rates if you’re sending money. Use affordable, trusted channels.

Here are some trusted product picks from 9jafinds.com/shop to help stretch your naira/remittances, and make home visits or shipments easier:

Staple food bundles – Rice, seasoning, canned goods
Sturdy backpacks & travel gear – for transporting goods or travel
Portable food storage / airtight containers – preserve value of food bought in bulk
Solar powered lighting or utility kits – buffer against electricity cost shocks

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If disinflation continues, inflation might reach ~17% by December 2025, according to projections. The Guardian Nigeria
Key indicators to watch: food inflation, FX stability, fuel & energy prices, policy adjustments (interest rate, import levies).
For Nigerians in the diaspora, staying informed and planning ahead will be essential.

Data & sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Reuters, Guardian Nigeria, IMPI, CBN. Figures are for August 2025, unless otherwise noted.